In progress
A Simulation Model of Peer Disagreement
An Ambiguity in the Notion of Epistemic Peerhood
The notion of epistemic peerhood is central to the debate about peer disagreement. This paper argues that 'peerhood' is ambiguous, and pernisciously so.
Taking Elga's equal-likelihood notion as a starting point, peerhood holds when two agents are equally likely to be right.
One one reading, two agents are peers when they are in fact equally likely to be right.
On another, they are peers when they are equally likely to be right in expectation,
allowing for some random variation in their actual likelihood of being right. I show that this ambiguity affects
other existing accounts of peerhood, including Gelfert's requirement of equal reflective ignorance.
While the ambiguity has previously been noted (Weber 2017), its normative implications have not been properly understood.
I examine these implications via a probabilistic truth-approximation model. In this model, peerhood-in-fact entails a unimodal
posterior over the true value, supporting conciliation. By contrast, peerhood-in-expectation entails
a bimodal posterior, warranting steadfast responses. Whether conciliation or
steadfastness is warranted depends, in part, on whether two agents are peers-in-fact, or peers-in-expectation.
What is Mental Compression?
It has recently been argued that understanding requires compression (Wilkenfeld
2019; Carbonell 2023; Queloz Beckmann 2025). On these views, understanding
a domain requires appropriately compressed mental representations that
support abilities characteristic of understanding, such as the ability to produce relevant explanations, predictions,
and counterfactual judgments. Yet, these proposals remain programmatic. Drawing on a notion
of compression from computer science, they leave open what compression could amount to
in human minds. This paper closes that gap, by offering accounts
of mental compression within two influential models of human cognition: the Language of
Thought and graph-like cognitive maps. I argue for these accounts on both conceptual and
empirical grounds. Within a LoT framework, mental compression can be understood in
terms of representational economy measured by the number of syntactic primitives required to encode some proposition. Conceptually, I address worries
about the opaqueness of LoT implementation by appealing to the Language
Invariance Theorem, which constrains the extent to which compression depends
on the choice of coding scheme. Empirically, I draw on computational modeling work (e.g., Sabl´e-Meyer et al., 2022) showing that human learners prefer
objects with descriptions with fewer syntactic primitives. Within a graph-based framework,
I argue that compression occurs at at least two levels. First, graphs compress
information about many possible states of the world by encoding systematic
dependency relations among nodes. Second, hierarchical graphical representations compress lower-level detail into higher-level abstractions. Empirically,
response-time patterns in studies of hierarchical graph learning (e.g., Xia et al.,
2023) suggest that humans represent graphical structure at multiple levels of abstraction. The resulting notion of mental compression explains central features
of understanding: grasping of dependency relations, the ability to generalize to
novel cases, and the intuitive contrast between genuine understanding and brute
memorization.
Under Review
Resilience and Higher-Order Defeat
We sometimes receive non-lopsided higher-order defeat: evidence that leaves our first-order credences intact,
while casting doubt that our credences are the right credences to have. The resilience revision view (Steglich-Petersen, 2019)
maintains that agents facing such defeat ought to lower their credences' resilience. This paper
argues that this view faces a problem of normative
over-determination: a situation in which standard Bayesian
norms and the resilience revision view issue conflicting
verdicts about how agents ought to update. To resolve this conflict, I
argue for weighted conditionalization: an updating rule on which
an agent's posterior is a weighted average of the credence supported by
her prior evidence and the credence supported by incoming evidence, with
the weight determined by rational higher-order attitudes. I derive this
rule via two independent routes: first, from an independently supported
bridge principle linking higher-order confidence to a normalized notion
of resilience, and second, from a Bayesian signal aggregation model
treating an agent's credences as noisy signals of a rationally optimal credence.
The convergence of these independent derivations provides strong support
for weighted conditionalization as the natural updating rule in contexts
of higher-order uncertainty. Doubting oneself well, it turns out, is not
just a matter of lowering one's higher-order confidence, but of updating
in proportion to that doubt.